Diffusion, Adopters and Innovation - Verbatim

1. DIFFUSION 2. 3. Diffusion Process by which A new idea is communicated Or spread in a social group And becomes an innovation Diffusion is a type of social change Diffusion is behind “implementation” 4. Diffusion M-payment is not yet diffused in Mexico, so it's still a good idea, not an innovation! 5. Diffusion Herorat.org: training and using rats to sniff landmines in Africa is an innovation! (training process, adoption scheme)‏ 6. Innovation idea #21 All innovation requires a diffusion process. Social change is the result of this process. Otherwise, it's just a good idea. 7. Social change 8. Social change 9. Social change 10. Videos SUV / mobile phone videos 11. Innovation idea #22 The designed environment has an important role in social change: it creates opportunities and incentivates certain behaviours over others 12. Change: co-causality From social to individual: Generation of new ideas From individual to social: Evaluation of new ideas 13. Diffusion “ The process by which new ideas become real solutions” Solutions available to social groups Adopters' evaluation Adoption or rejection decisions 14. Diffusion Diffusion is uncertain: Lack of predictability, structure, and information 15. Diffusion Most new ideas/products are not diffused and adopted rapidly: Even when they have obvious, proven advantages 16. Innovation idea #23 The diffusion rate of a new idea is only marginally related to how good or bad it is. Many other issues can become crucial: politics, culture, “timing”, etc 17. Diffusion “ Perceived newness” It matters little whether or not an idea is objectively new 18. 19.  20. $500 dollars 21. 22. Diffusion curves Sigmoid function S-shape curves time: cumulative adoption number of adopters 23. Diffusion curves ‘ Tipping point’ At about 10 to 25% adoption* ‘ Inflection point’ At about 75 to 90% adoption* Technology clusters Hard to distinguish start/end of diffusion 24. time: cumulative adoption types of adopters 25. The S-shape curve Once a few adopt, they tell others about the innovation and the number of adopters per unit of time takes off Until the market potential decreases, influence becomes redundant and adoption slows down again 26. Critical mass Point at which enough individuals have adopted an innovation so that the innovation’s further rate of adoption becomes self-sustaining That means: “ Diffusion continues no matter what” 27. the foundation sold 55 million bracelets in 2005, says www.livestrong.org “ Rubber bracelets are today's version of bumper stickers, buttons, ribbons or flags” http://www.sunjournal.com/story/271282-3/bsection/Livestrong_bracelets_began_healthy_trend/ 28. Adopter categories ‘ Innovators ’ Early adopters Mass adopters Late adopters Laggards 29. Innovation idea #24 People fall into different adopter categories for different types of products. Clichés are not useful: aim to understand and design for your target adopters 30. Enabling strategies Target opinion leaders Shape individual’s perceptions of the innovation Target early adopters first, but do not focus only on them Provide incentives for adoption Promote negotiation and interpretations Any design strategies? 31. 32. Varying critical mass, same end result Constant critical mass, different end result 33. Critical Mass of Head-Up Displays? 34. Characteristics of innovations Relative advantage Perceived as a better solution Compatibility Perceived as consistent with values, experience, needs Complexity Perceived as difficult to understand and use Trialability Experimented with on a limited basis Observability Results are visible to others 35. Innovation idea #25 Evidence shows that innovations that diffuse rapidly have: - greater perceived advantages - greater compatibility - greater trialability - greater observability - less complexity 36. Perceived advantages 37. Trialability 38. Observability 39. Compatibility 40. Compatibility 41. Complexity 42. 43. Uncertainty Adopters’ experience Influence perception of next innovation Competitors Non-intended uses Social and cultural events Reinterpretations or re-inventions 44. Re-invention Degree to which an innovation Is changed or modified By third-party (users, mkt, competition)‏ During diffusion And implementation At least some degree of re-invention occurs at the implementation stage For many innovations And by many adopters 45. Reinvention 46.